Saturday 8 October 2011

The future of Britain (UK) - it looks bleak

So, apparently its really difficult for politicians to tell the public the truth. We all know this but yet we continue to believe them. I just don't understand why. Is there a choice you might ask? Yes, there is! We need to occupy the streets and make change happen! Look at occupy Wall Street. The movement has been ignored by all western media - whilst they continue to show us "arab spring" scenes from Syria they refuse to show thousands of people acting against their governments in the UK or America? Could we be controlled just as easily as the human beings in the Middle East?

Lets look at two simple graphs and try and look at what is going to happen in Britain in the next 5-10 years

Graph 1: Population of the UK split by age





So, we can see the population through the eyes of those over 40 is a perfect pyramid scheme. There were always more workers to pass your work off to. You could comfortably go into management knowing that the next generation will be there in greater numbers to do your grunt work whilst you think of "strategy and direction". Do younger people not realise a pyramid scheme when they see one?

Now look at the population after the 40 year olds. There's a huge gap in the pyramid. The older generation have filled jobs with immigration and outsourcing and as a double whammy made having children and child care in general very expensive for the middle classes. We have a inverted pyramid for those who are 39 and below.

If the Conservatives do as they have promised and close down immigration from outside the EU we will see the cost of younger skilled labour rise if there are jobs available.

Remember those currently in the 15-19 age group will also hit the job market with debt of £40-60K actually equivalent to the mortgages that the 50-55 age group actually started to buy when they were starting a family. This will make kids even more unaffordable for the middle classes as they will have a huge debt on their heads before they can even begin to build equity in a property.

The politicians can obviously see all of this but won't bother showing this simple graph to the public nor will the media as its one big game to make you believe in an idea like "we're all in this together" or " the squeezed middle". The politicians always get paid and magically they are all wealthy enough to afford two houses, children and private education. So they have safeguarded their future the question is are the British people willing to fight the political classes for theirs?

It's time to get government that lives by the same rules that its population has to live by rather than simply being the overlords. Its time for no more free housing and transport for politicans - they do a job like everyone else. If they need to move down to London - buy a house and move your family. You can stay in your continuency house when you need to in a one bed room flat owned and paid for by the government or local authority each MP represents. Plenty of mums and dads have to leave their family behind in order to work why shouldn't politicians? They chose the career!

Next up: Who is going to pay for the health costs for all of that lovely pyramid of 40+ year olds?

Graph 2: Health care costs



Its unavoidable. There will definitely be more older people in our future. Look at the population graph its a mathematically certainty!

Now lets study the healthcare costs. Since Tony Blair came to power he pumped a very high real term increase in spending for the NHS (i.e above inflation). That kind of spending can't be sustained unless Britain is growing its economy at a phenomenal rate.

David Cameron will have to reduce spending but even so, we've seen from the population graph that more and more people are getting older. If he reduces spending each person will have less and less spent on them. THE NHS WILL BECOME TERRIBLE its a foregone conclusion based on the facts. Less beds, less space per person, less treatment, more self care and out patient work, and fewer operations until absolutely necessary. The list can go on and on. We just don't have the money to pay for over 40s to get sick. Now remember which age group all the capital (i.e money) and power (i,e heads of companies, senior management and cabinet ministers etc) They will look after themselves rather than the children in the UK. The wealthy ones know that their kids will be ok. They would rather enjoy their retirement than let the nation's kids have a lifestyle anywhere close to the one they enjoyed. Why do we think equality and child poverty are getting worse in the UK?

The future will therefore be one of mass emigration for the younger generation who look elsewhere for cheaper house prices and higher wages or significant wage inflation for the smaller supply of labour in the population. Robots (or other technology) may change these dynamics but that has yet to be proven. As things stand the pictures above illustrate that it was easy to see this coming but the politicians just couldn't be bothered to do anything about it. Instead they promised the world to retain power at all costs. 

Its a shame the younger generations will pay for the sins of their fathers. I hate it when people simply complain with out actually trying to think of solutions. Shadow cabinet politicians seem to think that is their role for some reason - when actually we need them to price and forecast different ideas to share with the public. So in an effort to help - here are actions we could undertake to minimise the trough in this business cycle - How to help Britain

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